The ICE Storm: A Year-Long Escalation, by Christina Pagel – 26 January 2026

From Making Sense…

What we are seeing in Minneapolis right now is horrendous, frightening, and heartbreaking. But it is not a surprise. Over the past year, the Trump administration has deliberately escalated immigration enforcement – expanding funding and capacity for ICE, normalising violent and racist rhetoric, and expanding legal support for immigration enforcement while stripping back oversight. On the ground, federal immigration agents have grown bolder and more aggressive.

Where we are now traces directly back to the very beginning of Trump’s second term. In this post I trace out the actions since January 2025, highlighting the key events that tell the story of how we ended up here.

Below is a chart of actions over the last year – I’ve logged almost 200 and so have only been able to label the most significant on the chart below (high resolution version). The full list, along with links to relevant news stories, can be accessed here.

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Christina Pagel is Professor of Operational Research in Health Care at University College London, UK.

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