From The Diplomat
Editor’s Note: This is the first article in a three-part series about Myanmar’s escalating political crisis. The first part will offer an overview of the conflict, and the state of the humanitarian emergency and economic crisis affecting post-coup Myanmar. The second part will analyze the overall conflict and the status of the two sides, while the third will explore ignored undercurrents that provide a fuller picture of the civil war.
February 1 marked two years since Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, launched a disastrous putsch that has plunged the country into broader strife and economic meltdown. The State Administration Council (SAC) military junta still struggles to impose its rule across the country as a mosaic of activists and armed groups tenaciously resist the coup in an expanding civil war.
Citing the spiraling violence, the SAC on January 31 extended the state of emergency beyond the normal limit provided by the military-drafted 2008 constitution, which it claims to uphold. The growing list of townships under martial law, 47 at the time of writing, reflects the regime’s tenuous position. It also argued that better population data was needed for its much-promised elections that its opponents have denounced and vowed to disrupt. With plans to hold the next census in October 2024, the polls will be held in 2025 at the earliest, if at all.
In the interim, the SAC has made various gestures aimed at legitimizing itself, such as holding a major parade to mark Myanmar’s 75th Independence Day – the 57th to take place under military rule – conferring thousands of titles including upon themselves, and building a huge temple in Naypyidaw. Recent “discoveries” of a baby white elephant and a 2,800-carat ruby are interpreted as divine signs of the SAC’s legitimacy and eventual victory.
Arrayed against the regime are hundreds of grassroots-level armed groups, including the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) nominally led by the parallel National Unity Government (NUG) with collaboration from a number of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that have long fought against successive central governments. Peaceful protests, including the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), continue but have lost steam and have been relegated to the back seat of the anti-junta struggle.
Naw Theresa is the pseudonym of a Myanmar-based independent analyst.
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