The military’s record — having seized power by presenting themselves as the people’s protectors against the former repressive regime — is hardly impressive.
In late September 2025, massive protests broke out against the endless and increasingly prolonged power cuts, as well as against the corruption of the ruling Rajoelina clan. Eight months later, the hopes of Gen Z — which had mobilised in large numbers — have faded, giving way to a mixture of despondency and anger.
Recurring problems with no solution
As repression bore down on the population during the mobilisations, the army’s intervention was welcomed with relief. On 12 October, upon seizing power, Colonel Michael Randrianirina declared his intention to resolve the country’s problems quickly and to organise elections within two years.
From the very first weeks of their rule, the military took unilateral decisions with no consultation of the country’s active forces — whether regarding the successive appointments of prime ministers or the structuring of power, including the appointment of several vice-presidents.
The organisation of a national conference — aimed at laying bare the structural problems facing the Great Island and finding solutions — was entrusted to the federation of Christian churches, which is not among the most progressive when it comes to women’s rights.
Finally, the recurring power cuts look set to continue, given the adoption of a budget that prioritises expenditure related to the presidency above all else.
Entrenched personal power
Since formally announcing his candidacy for the presidential election, Randrianirina has been consolidating his power in order to secure victory in the election, which is currently scheduled to take place in 18 months’ time.
He is employing methods similar to those of previous regimes, building a patronage network and resorting to repression. Under cover of fighting corruption and defending the state, arrests and disappearances have been reported.
Six leading members of Gen Z have been arrested, two of whom were subjected to violence. Although they have since been released, a climate of fear is taking hold.
There has also been a militarisation of Madagascar, with the establishment of a security cooperation agreement with Russia. The latter has delivered weapons, trucks, and two helicopters. Africa Corps soldiers have been deployed to train the Malagasy army, but also to protect the transitional president — which speaks volumes about the weakness of his authority over the military.
The decision of the Malagasy electoral commission does nothing to allay concerns. In preparation for the presidential election, it is about to conclude a cooperation agreement with its Russian counterpart — a country that, in terms of transparency, inclusivity, and electoral democracy, is not — it must be said — a beacon of best practice, unless the aim is to install a dictatorship in the country.
Paul Martial is an editor of Afriques en Lutte.
The French original of this article first appeared in French in L’Anticapitaliste. This English translation, by Daniel Mang, was first published on the Left Renewal Blog.
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