From French Pastoral
Philippe Marlière argues that, as Macronism fades, France’s Bonapartist right is moving towards an alliance with the National Rally in which it would be the junior partner, a situation that would be unique in Europe.
The overall impact of political realignments can only be measured in hindsight. Emmanuel Macron’s election as President of the Republic in 2017 blew apart the old left-right divide. At the time, few commentators fully grasped the significance of this realignment. A political novice in his thirties, with no party affiliation, winning the flagship political election on his first attempt and then going on to secure an absolute majority in the legislative elections, is an exceptional political event.
The consequences of the 2017 deflagration
For a significant number of left-wing elected representatives and voters to follow Macron and for a large proportion of right-wing elected representatives and voters to join a former left-wing finance minister, the left-right cleavage had to have clearly lost its appeal. This explosion does not mean that the divide has completely disappeared: it is now erratic and competes with other divides that escape this binary classification.
The left has still not recovered from the 2017 explosion. It has been stagnating for more than eight years at a historically low level (30% of the vote), while Macronism has been in crisis for three years and moribund for a year. The destruction of the left-right cleavage has claimed another major victim: the right, in its Orleanist and Bonapartist variants. Initially, it was partly won over by the young president’s project. Macron’s ‘at the same time’ approach, intended to bring together the centre left and centre right, but it quickly shifted to neoliberal and law and order policies. This combination suited a conservative France until 2022. Then, the president’s authoritarianism and mixed economic results caused a double shift: the centre-left electorate partly returned to the Parti Socialiste, and Macron’s right-wing policies on immigration and law and order completed the normalisation of the National Rally.
Philippe Marlière is Professor of French and European Politics at University College London.
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