From Sana’a Center Perspectives and Analysis
Fighting in western Taiz and southern Hudaydah rapidly escalated last week, resulting in the collapse of government lines and a shocking advance by Houthi forces (Ansar Allah) down the western coast of Yemen. The group captured the important historic port city of Al-Makha, the coastal town of Dhubab, and the strategic island of Mayyun (Perim) in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. They now control nearly the entirety of Yemen’s Red Sea coast and retain broad access to the international shipping lane.
The fighting came as part of a broader escalation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognized government that began in July. Taking advantage of the recurrent disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz wrought by the US-Iran conflict, the Houthis have been pressuring Riyadh to lift what they describe as a “blockade” of northern Yemen by announcing one of their own, targeting Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping diverted to the Red Sea. Fighting soon resumed on frontlines in Yemen itself.
The fall of the West Coast is the largest territorial shift in Yemen’s civil war since the signing of a temporary truce in the spring of 2022. Until this summer, that truce had largely held, with violence limited to small-scale operations and limited incursions. The rapid transformation of the situation raises numerous questions about the future of the conflict and the region’s security architecture.
Al-Makha was the base of Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) member and National Resistance forces leader Tareq Saleh, and the withdrawal of his and other pro-government forces will raise questions about the recent reconstitution of anti-Houthi forces under Saudi guidance, and the military and institutional effectiveness of the government.
For the international community, the Houthis are now a familiar problem that grows in stature each time they look away. The group’s expanding footprint on the Red Sea poses a recurrent threat to maritime shipping, and could facilitate the expansion of smuggling networks and closer ties with non-state armed actors in the Horn of Africa. More pressingly, Yemen’s already severe humanitarian crisis is deepening with tens of thousands of civilians displaced by the fighting, many of whom have already fled conflict before, and whose needs are likely to be unmet in an environment of declining humanitarian aid.
In this collection of analyses, experts examine the implications of the recent Houthi offensive and how it has altered the strategic landscape, the trajectory of the conflict, and the prospects for peace.
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