From Equator
Watching Turkish TV this past week has been a strange experience. Since 28 February, pro- and anti-Erdoğan channels have largely suspended their political spin, and are merely describing world events as they occur. It is as if they have been humbled into realism. What the US and Israel are doing to Iran is a reminder that the worst does happen. Your country may be vast and its civilisation may be storied, but if you are weak and your enemies see an opportunity, they can come and take everything away from you. From us.
One quote appears again and again: “Turkey is the new Iran”. Naftali Bennett, the former Israeli prime minister (who is set to run against Benjamin Netanyahu again in elections later this year), said it at a press conference in Jerusalem on 17 February. He went on: “Erdoğan is sophisticated, dangerous and he seeks to encircle Israel.”
The headline writes itself: “Is Turkey next?” It appears in newspapers and on TV; in WhatsApp channels and on social media. There is a demeaning aspect to this. For all the Turkish government’s bluster on the world stage, the subterranean struggle between pride and insecurity is more intense than ever. As Mete Yarar, a former soldier and TV commentator, put it:
Everyone keeps saying, and you probably hear it too: “Who is next? Is it our turn?” Why, my friend? … as if we are all lined up and there is one bully coming down the line slapping everyone… When did you let yourselves be put in line, so that you are now asking if it’s your turn?
So, could Turkey be next? Not in the way most people mean. Netanyahu and Erdoğan are not about to engage in a military conflict. But a clash is brewing.
Selim Koru is an analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) and a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). He has written on Turkish politics for publications such as the New York Times, War on the Rocks, and The Atlantic, and is the author of New Turkey and the Far Right: How Reactionary Nationalism Remade a Country.
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