From OffBeat Research
Much of the world’s attention on the Middle East has been focused on the man-made famine in Gaza, the collapse of the Assad regime, the rise of former Al-Qaeda fighter Ahmed al-Sharaa to president of Syria, and the sectarian clashes and massacres that happened in predominantly Alawite and Druze regions of Syria on the new government’s watch. In the midst of growing uncertainty about sectarianism and instability, Israel is ramping up attacks and seizing territory from the war-torn nation, invading beyond the previously declared ceasefire line which had stood for decades. The actions amount to a declaration of war on the post-Assad government before it has even fully consolidated power.
Assad’s departure on December 8, 2024 set off what Israeli officials described as one of the largest bombing campaigns in the history of its air force, crippling what remained of Syria’s military infrastructure.
The attacks may seem baffling to outside observers as Israel’s principal enemy in the immediate vicinity, Hezbollah, withdrew from Syria in December 2024 amid the collapse of the Assad regime. However, the recent escalations are part of Israel’s strategy of trying to establish red lines after the collapse of a long-standing arrangement with Russia, which as documents captured after the fall of the Assad regime show, gave the Israeli air force broad freedom of action in Syria during the last decade of Assad’s reign.
The Israeli reaction to Assad’s fall has been opportunistic, with Netanyahu’s government taking aggressive positions, killing Syrians in the hundreds, and seizing land.
The emergence of a nascent state that is neither subservient nor overtly hostile to Israel puts Israel’s maximalist goals under new scrutiny. The Israeli government cannot reasonably claim self-defense under customary international law, and have thus turned to a series of often contradictory messages for increasingly naked aggression. Where most of the international community that the tumultuous divisions of post Assad Syria are a challenge to be overcome, Netanyahu sees the instability as an opportunity.
Israel’s Occupation of Syrian Territory Post-December 2024
Since December 2024, Israeli forces have moved further into Syrian territory, occupying villages and clashing with locals. In one case, an Israeli drone strike killed a local mayor who appeared to have been negotiating on behalf of residents. Images have recently emerged of new Israeli military structures inside Syria, which indicate a move to a permanent military presence. Additionally, the Israeli military has admitted to detaining Syrian citizens inside Syria, exercising the authority of an occupying force.
#Syria: Israel killed the Mayor of Ghadir Bustan (S. #Quneitra) with a drone strike.
He was receiving a delegation of the Department of Military Operations during a session aimed to collect weapons.
2 #DMO members were also killed.https://t.co/tR8uxrF6jH pic.twitter.com/9iADhqiNx4— Qalaat Al Mudiq (@QalaatAlMudiq) January 15, 2025
Public statements from Israeli leaders have also grown increasingly hostile — with government figures, including Netanyahu, saying that the collapse of Assad did not serve Israel’s interests.
The backdoor dealings of the Assad era have been replaced by both more overt hostility from Israel and more public overtures for negotiation from the Syrian Transitional Government (STG). The Israeli government has set a red line against STG forces being stationed in any meaningful way in the south of Syria, and has conducted airstrikes under the pretext of enforcing this red line.
An already tense situation in southern Syria escalated further in July when forces loyal to the Druze Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri ambushed STG forces, killing dozens. Subsequent clashes erupted into sectarian violence, as STG forces documented themselves systematically killing Druze civilians. Clashes with Bedouin fighters ended in mass displacement of both Bedouin and Druze civilians. Al-Hijri would go on to openly thank Israel for intervening on behalf of the Druze community.
For its part, the Israeli government stated that it would defend the Druze in Suwayda, with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz saying, “we will not allow a massacre of our Druze brothers just across our border.” According to media reports, the STG had been given a green light in July by the Americans to enter Suwayda to confront Al-Hijri, leading them to believe they would not be interdicted by the Israelis. Instead, the Israeli military launched a significant air campaign against the STG, which included airstrikes against the Ministry of Defense in Damascus, and near the Presidential Palace. Multiple images posted to social media purported to be from Al-Hijri supporters in Suwayda show them displaying the Israeli flag on municipal buildings and elsewhere. Additionally, the Israeli government has allowed a large number of Druze from the occupied Golan to enter Syria, though it denies allowing fighters to cross.
The situation on the coast, meanwhile, is still boiling, with reports of young men fearing for their lives amid both a swirl of rumors intended to stoke division, and irrefutable proof of sectarian massacres carried out by STG allied forces against local Alawites. Recent weapons seizures also show that there is still a well-armed contingent of Assad loyalists who will still pose a threat to the government’s fragile position. Additionally, U.N. experts have expressed concerns about the kidnapping of Alawite girls.
A peace deal agreed between self-appointed interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF leader Abdi Mazloum was yet another unexpected twist in the complicated months following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. As part of the agreement, areas controlled by the Autonomous Administration will now nominally come under government control.
Though the peace deal between the SDF and the Transitional Government is a hopeful sign, it is tenuous and multiple conflicts are still ongoing. For its part, the Israeli government has made it clear that it will be one of many destabilizing forces in the near future.
The New Syrian Government and the Palestinian Cause
The new conciliatory stance of the Syrian government towards Israel is a stark contrast to the rhetoric of many of its supporters, who displayed symbols affiliated with Palestinian fighters during the fall of Assad. For their part, Hamas representatives issued statements congratulating the opposition for the regime’s collapse.
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