Brazilian Elections Could Determine the Shape of US Hegemony in South America, by Joshua Collins – 28 September 2026

Will the country join Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Chile, Paraguay, Argentina, and Peru in submission to Washington?

Brazil goes to the ballot boxes for the first round of presidential elections this week on Sunday, October 4. The two front-runners are Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), from the Workers’ Party (PT), and Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL), son of disgraced ex-president Jair Bolsonaro.

​The elder Bolsonaro remains under house arrest for an attempted coup after falsely claiming the last round of presidential elections were fraudulent.

​But that conviction is far from a permanent setback, especially if his son Flávio becomes the most powerful man in the country. Washington, D.C., has made its preference known explicitly. They want the Bolsonaro oligarchy at the reins.

​The victory of a Trump-friendly ally in the largest country in South America would consolidate US control of the region after a wave of right-wing populist victories in Latin America, and the installation of a US-puppet regime in Venezuela.

​The candidates are in a statistical tie. Lula, who is 80 years old, is seeking his fourth presidential term. His campaign has accused the US of election interference and warned that a victory by Flavio would effectively turn Brazil into a “US protectorate,” subservient to Washington.

​In recent weeks, the US has imposed tariffs on Brazil, applied diplomatic pressure on Brazil’s judiciary, and loudly endorsed the younger Bolsonaro.

​Lula’s campaign has also accused US-owned social media companies of throttling their voices, with Facebook and X refusing to run election ads for the liberal candidate.

​A group of lawmakers from Lula’s Workers’ Party sent an official letter to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday, accusing the US of “acting as an agent of interference and destabilisation — using diplomatic, economic and political pressure in ways that risk weakening the country’s democratic institutions, undermining confidence in Brazil’s electoral process, and inflicting further damage on our relationship with a strategic US ally and trading partner”.

​Flavio’s campaign promises to tighten relations with the US and to prioritize Western companies in the country’s rare-earth minerals mining sector, a crucial strategic point for arms manufacturers and tech companies in the US.

​But divesting from China may be much more difficult than making campaign promises. Brazil’s economy is deeply tied to the country, as the elder Bolsonaro found out the hard way. (America’s Quarterly has a great piece on exactly why.)

Flavio would certainly be part of ongoing US efforts to control security policy in the region, however, joining Ecuador, Colombia, Chile, Paraguay, Argentina, Venezuela, and Peru, in a pro-US coalition that is increasingly bowing to the desires of US President Donald Trump.

​Both candidates staged street rallies to mark the official end of the campaign. Brazil will hold the second-round runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate wins more than 50% in the first round (which, based on polling, looks extremely unlikely.)

Joshua Collins has been reporting on Latin America for a decade on human rights, the impact of crime on human rights, immigration and politics.

This article first appeared on Pirate Wire Services and is republished here with permission.

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